BRINGING TIGRAY CLOSER TO THE WORLD, Tigray Government

1 OVERVIEW OF THE HUMANITARIAN SITUATION 

1.1. Insufficient Humanitarian Supplies  and Worsening Humanitarian Crisis 

The total blockade of Tigray has resulted in a  calamitous humanitarian crisis, putting millions of  Tigrayans at risk of death by starvation and easily  preventable diseases. In fact, the UN’s relief chief,  Martin Griffiths, had highlighted the deleterious  impact of the “de facto blockade” of Tigray on  humanitarian operations months ago. While limited  aid—far from sufficient to meet burgeoning  needs—had been trickling into Tigray from July  through mid-December, no humanitarian aid was  delivered from mid-December through the end of  March overland, when the Abiy regime announced a  “humanitarian truce,” ostensibly to facilitate  humanitarian aid to Tigray. 

According to aid agencies, at least 100 truckloads of  supplies are needed daily to meet humanitarian  needs on the ground. Based on this conservative  estimate, from July 12 to April 20, about 28,400  truckloads of supplies should have arrived in Tigray.  In reality, only 1420 trucks arrived, representing a  mere 5 percent of the required aid (see figure 1).  

2 AID DELIVERY FOLLOWING THE  “HUMANITARIAN TRUCE” 

Since December 15 through the end of March, no  humanitarian aid was delivered into Tigray via the  only land route (Semera-Abala-Mekelle). On March  24, the Abiy regime declared what it called a  “humanitarian truce to, inter alia, facilitate aid flow  into Tigray—a move that the Government of Tigray  reciprocated. However, as of March 31st, no  humanitarian assistance was delivered to the people  of Tigray. Since then, 81 truckloads of supplies have  been delivered, representing a mere 4 percent of the  total aid required during the delivery period.  

To put it in broader context, from December 15  through April 20, about 12,700 trucks should have  arrived in Tigray. In reality, only 86 trucks were  allowed into Tigray, representing a mere 1 percent of  the required aid (see figure 2).  

2.1 Broad Reflections on the “Humanitarian Truce” 

i. Security or lack thereof as an excuse for humani tarian aid blockage.

The Abiy regime and its local  intermediaries have routinely provided spurious explanations for their deliberate denial of  humanitarian access to Tigray. In that regard, even  the limited aid delivery thus far has been critical in  dispelling bogus claims about the role of insecurity  in hampering humanitarian aid provision. While the  claim has always been without any merits, the safe  arrival of a limited number of trucks has established  that the roads are safe for humanitarian aid delivery  into Tigray. This, in turn, has robbed the regime and  its allies of their favorite go-to line to rationalize their  persistent obstruction of humanitarian aid delivery  into Tigray. But absent political will on the part of the  international community and some of the powerful  actors in the international system, the Abiy regime  will continue to come up with specious arguments to  justify its inhumane policy.

ii. The Consistent use of access to food as a  weapon of war.

We had hoped that the so-called humanitarian truce along with the limited aid delivered recently would be the beginning of sustained humanitarian aid provision. However, old habits die hard. The Abiy regime has not fundamentally altered its deliberate foot-dragging in the face of a staggering humanitarian calamity in Tigray. It is clear that the Abiy regime is dangling the prospect of facilitating the delivery of humanitarian aid into Tigray to stave off international pressure and weaken or kill the momentum of the campaign to hold it accountable for siege-starving its own citizens. In practice, the regime and its local allies have not abandoned their use of starvation and civilian suffering as a tool of war—a war crime under international law as well as a moral obscenity that no human being should endure or countenance.

We had hoped that the so-called  humanitarian truce along with the limited aid  delivered recently would be the beginning of  sustained humanitarian aid provision. However, old  habits die hard. The Abiy regime has not  fundamentally altered its deliberate foot-dragging in  the face of a staggering humanitarian calamity in  Tigray. It is clear that the Abiy regime is dangling the  prospect of facilitating the delivery of humanitarian  aid into Tigray to stave off international pressure and  weaken or kill the momentum of the campaign to  hold it accountable for siege-starving its own  citizens. In practice, the regime and its local allies  community has chosen to praise the regime despite  allowing only 4 percent of the aid needed into  Tigray. Thus emboldened, the Abiy regime continues  to make empty promises it has no intention of  fulfilling. By reflexively taking seriously the Abiy  regime’s empty rhetoric, and refusing to hold it  accountable for engineering a colossal humanitarian  tragedy, the international community has effectively  become complicit in the suffering of millions of  people.  

iii. The international community has continually  failed the people of Tigray.

The international  community and some prominent world powers have  by and large failed to press the Abiy regime to follow  up on its promise of facilitating unfettered  humanitarian access to Tigray. Instead of putting  sufficient pressure on the Abiy regime to capitalize  on this limited window of opportunity and facilitate  the delivery of sustained aid consistent with the  enormity of needs on the ground, the international community has chosen to praise the regime despite allowing only 4 percent of the aid needed into Tigray. Thus emboldened, the Abiy regime continues to make empty promises it has no intention of fulfilling. By reflexively taking seriously the Abiy regime’s empty rhetoric, and refusing to hold it accountable for engineering a colossal humanitarian tragedy, the international community has effectively become complicit in the suffering of millions of people

iv. The Cessation of hostilities is not an  open-ended commitment.

The principal rationale behind the cessation of hostilities agreement is the  facilitation of humanitarian aid to Tigray. Absent  significant progress on that score, the already  untenable situation on the ground will become even  more so, fatally undermining the agreement. The  Government of Tigray urges the international  community to stave off this eventuality by pressuring  the Abiy regime to alter course and allow unfettered  humanitarian access to Tigray.

3 THE PATH FORWARD 

The international community must hurry before millions of Tigrayans perish from hunger and easily preventable diseases. Tigray’s multifaceted humanitarian tragedy can only be resolved only if a number of interlocking measures are undertaken:

• Unfettered humanitarian access. Aside from the  fact that no significant aid has been allowed into  Tigray since the regime’s announcement of the  so-called humanitarian truce, the principal issue  regarding aid provision is not about whether  some trucks made it to Tigray on a given day.  Rather, the issue should be about the presence of  a system to facilitate regular, timely, sufficient and unfettered aid flow into Tigray. The regime, rather  than fulfilling its legal and moral obligations,  routinely presents sporadic episodes of limited  aid delivery as an act of charity worthy of  commendation. international community  must, at last, go beyond the usual statements of  concern and take concrete actions to compel the  Abiy regime to fulfil its legal obligations under  international law
• Lift the deadly blockade of Tigray and restore  essential services. The Abiy regime has imposed  a watertight blockade on Tigray since the end of  June 2021. The resulting humanitarian  catastrophe has led to thousands of people dying  of hunger and easily preventable diseases.  Exacerbating this colossal humanitarian crisis is  the suspension of essential social and economic  services. Total electricity and telecommunications  blackout; the shortage of basic commodities; and  the suspension of banking and transportation  services have wreaked havoc on Tigray. The  suspension of banking services is particularly  harrowing, as millions of Tigrayans have not been  able to access their hard-earned savings,  exposing them to extreme hardship.  Furthermore, Tigrayans in the diaspora cannot  send remittances to their relatives in Tigray, or to  any Tigrayan in need in general. 
• Immediate withdrawal of invading Amhara  forces from Western Tigray. The invading  forces continue to occupy large swaths of Tigray.  Amhara expansionist forces have illegally  annexed the entire Western Tigray, with all the  horrors that it entails. As extensively documented  in the joint Amnesty International-Human Rights  Watch report, Amhara forces in Western Tigray,  with the support of the Ethiopian and Eritrean  armies, have engaged in ethnic cleansing of  Tigrayans in the hope of bolstering their baseless  irredentist claim on a constitutionally recognized  Tigrayan territory. Several hundred thousand  Tigrayans have been forced out of their homes,  compounding the already acute humanitarian  emergency in other parts of Tigray. Of those who  remain, thousands have been imprisoned and  continue to be held under cruel, inhumane and  degrading conditions. Furthermore, thousands  have been murdered and their mutilated bodies  thrown into the Tekeze river, with their remains  ultimately floating offshore in the Sudan. The  international community must insist on the  restoration of the prewar territorial status quo  ante. Only then can we begin to address the  staggering humanitarian crisis. 
• Hold Eritrea accountable for Tigray’s  multifaceted crisis and immediately withdraw  from territories of Tigray
  Although chief  responsibility for the suffering of the people of  Tigray should be laid at the feet of the Abiy  regime and its local intermediaries, the genocidal  Isaias regime has also played no less a role in the  obstruction of humanitarian aid delivery into  Tigray. Although some positive signals have  come from the Abiy regime vis-à-vis the  provision of humanitarian aid to Tigray, those  signals are more than offset by the destructive  role of the Isaias regime. The Eritrea regime is  continuing its atrocities in western, north western,  Central and Estern Tigray with impunity.
  
  Determined to prosecute its genocidal war to its  logical conclusion—the extermination of the  Tigrayan people—the invading Isaias regime has  cultivated parallel links with expansionist Amhara  forces and the authorities in Afar. Having  cultivated pliant subnational groups within  Ethiopia dependent on Eritrean military support  and, thus, willing to bend to his will, the  authoritarian Isaias leverages these relationships  to obstruct humanitarian operations, as it  continues to use hunger and the suffering of  civilians as a tool of war.  
  
  Absent a well-considered strategy to marginalize  this spoiler—an entity to whom peace is a threat  to its survival or power and is, thus, willing to use  force and other malign means to impede efforts  to bring it about—the quest for peace in Ethiopia  will be elusive.